What Lies Ahead

You thought 2020 was wild? 2020 is holding 2021’s beer with its eyes wide open and jaw on the floor. When the Coronavirus halted our industry in March of last year nobody knew what would happen next. We felt like we would see a declining economy and sales while

everyone waited this out. And we did briefly. We then quickly saw more people than ever staying at home comfort became a priority. FINALLY. We have been screaming this for years but it took a global pandemic for it to happen. Sales increased. And increased. And increased. New construction was decent, commercial was non existent and residential change outs ruled the day. This held true until the end of 2020.

2021 was supposed to be a return to normal. We started to see commercial projects coming back, new construction was booming and comfort was still a priority. Great, right? Not so fast…

Before we go any further this post is not and will not be a political rant on the economy right or wrong. This is what Best Choice Supply is seeing, what we believe will happen and how to deal with these issues going forward.

Demand is still at an all time high. This is helped by a lot of factors, people still at home, record low interest rates, stimulus etc. Which normally would be a really good thing for everyone. But supply is at unprecedented lows. Manufactures are still at limited capacity, foreign governments are still holding raw materials instead of exporting it to other countries and the world is playing catch up at this point. And they are way behind.

We are having weekly discussions with vendors updating us on inventory issues and the forecast. So far we know that raw goods are increasingly harder to come by. Steel, metals, sealants, wood, you name it people are struggling to get it. We all know whenever there is a shortage of anything the item goes to the highest bidder.

Beyond inventory there is a HUGE workforce issue. Some of this is because of social distancing and capacity limits. Some of this is due to roughly 9 million unemployed that essentially are UN-hirable right now. Whether that is due to the unemployment benefits, fear of COVID, or whatever else it just is what it is. This is driving issues with freight, land air or sea. Manufacturing times. Accuracy. Its a mess.

So why do you care? Because ultimately we believe the contractor is the most fragile in this situation. The natural progression of supply and demand or inflation or whatever you believe is happening right now is a price increase. And they will be brutal.

We experienced record high price increases in Q1. Low side of 10-15% all the way up to 35-40% increase. Are they done? NO WAY. We have all ready double dipped some price increases in Q2 and are expecting every quarter material to rise anywhere from 5-20%. Ultimately that will be passed on to you and to your consumer.

We are being allocated on some of the material we buy. Basically even though we are seeing a large increase in sales we can only purchase what we did at the same time last year. Not ideal. Also this is with increased lead times. We have a very strong inventory and have partnered with strong vendors to back us. Those vendors who normally have a 2-3 week lead time has been pushed to 12, 16, 24 weeks in some cases. Also not ideal.


We are doing everything in our power to protect our dealers and customers. We are not actively pursuing new business. We want to make sure our customers are taken care of first and foremost.

We ask from you that if you have a job, order it IMMEDIATELY. We can not hold product more than 30 days. If you need it to be held you will be asked to purchase it and be billed. We can not hold pricing for more than 30 days. Any large commercial job needs extra attention as large quantities may not be available.

We do not want to tell you how to run your business. But the more transparent you are with your consumers, builders etc the better off you may be.

This may breeze by and mean nothing. Building may slow, the economy and workforce may come roaring back and we look like we are yelling fire in a movie theater. But we would rather have you prepared than apologize when we couldn’t support you.

If you have any questions, concerns or just want to pick our brain. Contact us. We are here for you and will remain here for you in these times.

Best Choice Supply Company